Who Says You
Can’t Predict People?
Our ideation is rooted in advice given by Jack Dorsey, co-founder of Twitter: “An idea that can change the course of the company can come from anywhere.” The key to innovation, he says, is to be open to new ideas no matter where they come from. That’s why we use diverse participants to uncover hundreds of new ideas from outside your typical customer or employee groups.
Our progressive approach to concept screening was inspired by the New York Times business bestseller, “The Wisdom of Crowds.” The idea is that under the right circumstances, a large group of everyday people can better predict outcomes than a small group of experts.
When it comes to human behavior, we often aren’t the best predictors of our own behavior. We have a tendency to overstate our intentions. Yet, when we ask a large group of people how they think we’ll behave (and we incent them to choose correctly), they can be extremely accurate in predicting our behavior.
With this in mind, our prediction markets evaluate how successful your concepts will be using a diverse population of people, rather than a target audience. We ask participants to self-select in based on their knowledge of your topic area, and we incentivize them to make an accurate prediction.
This is a sophisticated form of crowdsourcing, and it’s been around for 100+ years.
HOW IT WORKS
Imagine a virtual, online stock market. Participants, known as “traders,” are given virtual dollars to buy shares in your product ideas or branding and advertising ideas. Like a real world stock market, the prices for concepts fluctuate, depending on whether people believe a concept is of value or not.
It’s important to note, we don’t ask traders, what would you do? We ask them, what do you believe the target audience will do—and why?
By observing how share prices move over several days, we can make highly accurate predictions regarding the real world success of the concepts you’re screening.
With our fresh approach, concept screening is fun, and traders have a personal stake in it. They get a small financial reward based on their performance, rather than just for participating. Our approach creates high engagement, which leads to richer diagnostics and more candid feedback on your concepts.
A Pure Approach
= High Accuracy
A PURE APPROACH
Our unique methodology is a pure approach for conducting a prediction market, and we have a U.S. patent for it. There are two essential elements that make our markets highly accurate:
- We gather input from a diverse population of people.
- The population is incented to predict accurately. They feel “gain” in a win or “pain” in a loss.
Our approach is based on hundreds of hours of research on prediction markets. It builds on best practices from a variety of fields and markets, including the:
- New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), an advanced prediction market with a diverse set of traders.
- Iowa Electronic Markets (IEMs), which are used to predict political elections. The IEMs have been more accurate in predicting election outcomes than polls 75% of the time.
- Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSE), which allows people to wager on box-office returns and the Oscars. It’s considered one of the best forecasts of weekend box office results and Oscar results.
We took inspiration from these markets—as well as many others—and transformed them into our innovative and patented approach.
Wisdom of Crowds
HOW WE RECRUIT YOUR PARTICIPANTS
Dreaming about more efficient ways to recruit participants?
We collaborate with top survey panel providers and established online communities to recruit your participants. We focus on a statistically valid sample of “general population” consumers to participate in your ideation or prediction market.
Keep in mind, not everyone who is recruited participates in your exercise or prediction market. People self-select in based on their familiarity with the topic area and for prediction markets, their belief they can make an accurate—and winning—prediction.
This is one of the main reasons why we can offer you so many new ideas. It’s also the reason that prediction markets are accurate, even with a diverse population. Nobody likes to lose money: real or imaginary!
If you wish to include your own customers or employees, we can do that too.
KEEPING YOUR BIG IDEAS CONFIDENTIAL
Our clients tend to be creative thinkers, and it’s extremely important to us to protect the confidentiality of all their ideas.
We have a variety of security measures in place to safeguard your concepts, including a:
- Digital Non-Disclosure Agreement (NDA): All participants must sign a digital NDA. It legally prohibits them from sharing the concepts they see with any third party.
- Download Prevention: We have technical measures in place to prevent participants from downloading or copying any concept images or descriptions. Attempts to do so result in immediate termination from the study.
- Digital Watermark: All concept images are imprinted with a digital watermark, unique to each participant. These watermarks would allow us to trace any shared images back to a specific participant.
You Can’t Push the Envelope Standing Still…
Collective wisdom. Behavioral insight. See how ideation and prediction markets can expand and accelerate your concept development:
© 2014 Intengo